关键词: 国际商业周期, 重力模型, 中国出口

Abstract: How does international business cycle affect China’s exports? This paper introduces unobserved cyclical effects into gravity model to analyze the variation of China’s export and its determinants. Compared with current studies, this paper allows for cyclical effects with heterogeneous individual responses across cross-section units, which is more general and more in line with stylized trade facts. Then new techniques proposed recently by Pesaran (2006), Bai（2003）and others are applied to estimate gravity equations and cyclical effects. Empirical results demonstrate that China’s exports is obviously characterized with supply-push, domestic output is the most important factor in explaining exports growth, and that foreign output and exchange rate add fluctuations to exports. Meanwhile, the influences of cyclical effects vary with countries. China’s exports to some countries, such as America and Japan, bear cyclical effects more obviously. Further study shows that current financial crisis shock on China’s exports will be pronounced in 2009.

Key words: International, Business, Cycle, Gravity, Model, China’s, Export