关键词: 经济增长, 分位数回归, MCMC模拟, 异质性

Abstract: The homogeneous growth theory does not support the possibility that economies follow the different growth paths. This paper proposed the heterogeneous growth models which can capture systematic influences of policy variables on the location, scale and shape of the conditional distribution of the GDP growth rates. The models were estimated via Gibbs sampler with data augmentation by a mixture of standard exponential distribution and standard normal distribution to represent the asymmetric Laplace distribution. Bayesian inference revealed effective in our application to the GDP growth rates of every province in China after the reform and opening-up, the results show that there exist homogeneity of growth before the shareholding system reform on an enlarged scale but not after that. The findings support that the underlying growth model for cross-provinces is of neoclassical growth type.

Key words: Economic, growth, Quantile, regression, MCMC, simulation, Heterogeneity