统计研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 81-86.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国交通事故责任强制保险定价研究 ——来自北京、吉林、内蒙古和山东的经验证据

周县华   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-05-15 发布日期:2010-05-15

Zhou Xianhua   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-05-15 Published:2010-05-15

摘要: 本文运用北京、吉林、内蒙古和山东的交强险保单信息,研究我国交强险定价问题。研究发现:在费率水平方面,我国交强险定价除出租租赁和公路客运车型以外,总体上偏高;在作用机制方面,原有费率因子在影响交强险保费方面是显著的,但原理不尽相同;在费率结构方面,现有费率结构对于低风险的被保险人而言是不公平的。针对这些问题,本文建议监管当局和保险公司应与被保险人沟通,探索交强险的进一步改革,促进社会的稳定和谐发展。

关键词: 交强险, Logistic模型, Cox模型

Abstract: This paper studies the pricing of China Compulsory Automobile Liability Insurance (CALI for short). Our sample are the policies that PICC PAIC and PPIC underwritten in Beijing, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Shandong Provinces from 1 July, 2006 to 31 December, 2006(including policies information when underwritten and claim information in the following year). In this paper we find that: (1) Except taxi and road bus, the premium of CALI is higher as a whole. (2) It’s true that the factors of original rates structure of CALI affect the pricing of CALI, but the mechanism is different.(3) The original rates structure of CALI is unfair for the insured(based on a missed rate factor). We advise the regulatory authorities and insurance companies should communicate with the insured adequately. The further innovation is needed to ensure harmonious development of the society.

Key words: CALI, Logistic model, Cox model