关键词: As the basic national strategy in China, energy-saving has been concerned unprecedentedly. In the heavy chemical industrial period energy-saving is a difficult task, but it could be fulfilled in the future. In order to analyze the mid-long term energy-saving potentials in China, a dynamic CGE model of 22 sectors is built. Firstly, the relationship of 2002 energy balance between monetary unit and physical unit is accounted. Four extensive development scenarios and three intensive development scenarios are set. Then the economy growth and energy consumption from 2002 to 2030 in each scenario are numerically simulated. According to the calculation results, this paper analyzes the impacts of industrial technology upgrading, energy efficiency improving, and material recycling rate improving for GDP, energy intensity, energy consumption and etc. This research shows that economy will still be mainly constituted by the heavy industry until 2030. Only by largely improving energy efficiency and material recycling rate, the government can effectively reduce the energy intensity and promote economic growth.

Abstract: Energy-saving; Energy Intensity; General Equilibrium 
 

Key words: Energy-saving, Energy Intensity, General Equilibrium