住宅价格与土地价格的城市差异及其决定因素

统计研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 37-44.

住宅价格与土地价格的城市差异及其决定因素

张娟锋刘洪玉

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-03-15 发布日期:2010-03-15

The Determinants of Inter-metropolitan Variation in House Prices and Land Prices

Zhang Juanfeng & Liu Hongyu

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-03-15 Published:2010-03-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过建立中国城市住宅市场与土地市场的联立方程模型，试图解释住宅价格、土地价格的城市间差异。通过收集中国35个大中城市的105个样本数据，利用OLS和2SLS两种方法估计了城市住宅价格与土地价格方程。实证结果表明住宅市场与土地市场是互动影响的关联资产市场，住宅价格与土地价格之间存在联立性。人口数量、财富水平、建筑成本、住宅预期收益和土地市场化程度是造成中国城市间住宅价格、土地价格差异的决定因素，而平均工资与城市宜人性的影响并不显著。

关键词: 城市差异, 联立方程模型, 决定因素

Abstract: In attempting to explain why house prices and urban land prices vary so dramatically between Chinese metropolitan areas, a simultaneous equations model of a metropolitan house market and urban land market is presented identifying the two interrelated markets. With 105 observations from 35 Chinese metropolitans, the equations for housing prices and urban land prices are estimated using OLS and 2SLS methods. The empirical results provide strong support that these two markets interact and the housing prices and urban land prices are simultaneous determined by markets’ system. The results also suggest that population, wealth level, construction costs, house expected return and marketization degree of land system are important determinants causing housing prices and land prices to vary between metropolitan areas. But, average wage and urban amenity are not significant determinants.

Key words: Inter-metropolitan Variation, Simultaneous Equations Model, Determinants

张娟锋刘洪玉. 住宅价格与土地价格的城市差异及其决定因素 [J]. 统计研究, 2010, 27(3): 37-44.

Zhang Juanfeng &Liu Hongyu. The Determinants of Inter-metropolitan Variation in House Prices and Land Prices[J]. Statistical Research, 2010, 27(3): 37-44.

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