统计研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 15-22.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国房地产市场波动对宏观经济波动的影响研究

唐志军 徐会军 巴曙松   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-02-15 发布日期:2010-02-15

Study on the Effects of the Fluctuations of Real Estate Industry to the Fluctuations of China’s Macroeconomics

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-02-15 Published:2010-02-15

摘要: 房地产的波动会通过多种途径影响一国的宏观经济状况。为说明房地产市场的波动对我国宏观经济的影响,我们通过协整和VAR分析,实证了:①房地产价格波动对我国消费的影响,得出房价波动对社会消费品零售总额的波动有显著的负影响,且房价波动对消费波动的方差贡献最小都大于2.5%左右;②我国房地产投资波动对经济增长的影响,研究表明,房地产投资额的波动对GDP的增长率有显著的正影响,当房地产投资额的增长率上升1个百分点时,GDP增长率上涨0.181个百分点,且1个单位的房地产投资波动的冲击在第4个季度时达到最大,之后缓慢衰减,这说明房地产投资的波动对GDP有长期的影响;③我国房地产价格波动对通货膨胀的影响,计量结果表明,当房价的增长速度上升1个百分点时,通货膨胀率则上升0.118个百分点,且通货膨胀率对房价波动冲击的响应比较小,在第8个月达到最大,以后则开始衰减,而且达到的最大的影响以后,甚至出现负的、不稳定的影响。

Abstract: The fluctuations of real estate industry affects the macroeconomics through many channels. To explain the influence of dynamics of real estate industry on macroeconomics, we use the cointegragte model and VAR model ,and the proved results as follows: Firstly, the real estate price’ s fluctuations has negative effects on the total consumption of our country, and the least variance contributes of the real estate price’s fluctuations to the variance of consumption is 2.5%. Secondly, the fluctuations of real estate investments have significant positive effects on the GDP growth, the results prove that 1% growth of real estate investments will bring out 0.181% growth of GDP , and 1 unit impulse of investments will push the GDP reach its greatest growth rate at the 4th season and declines slowly ,which means the fluctuations of real estate investments have long term effects on the growth GDP. The third, the fluctuations of housing price also affects the inflation rate, the results of empirical analysis show that while there is a 1% increase of housing price, the inflation rate will rise by 0.118%, however, the reaction of inflation rate to the impulse of house price’s fluctuations are small and slowly, which reach its maximum at the 8th season and then begin to decrease , and even some negative and unstable reactions exist.