关键词: 人民币升值, 出口, 利润, 就业

Abstract: China’s foreign exchange regime was under intense pressure again in the first half year of 2010 since RMB was re-pegged to the dollar as the financial crisis intensified in 2008. In the long run, China’s exchange-rate policy should neither peg to the dollar nor appreciate quickly against dollar. Timing and tempo is the key to the policy. This paper designs a stress test for impacts of RMB appreciation on export enterprises based on the financial data of 80,000 export enterprises in 2009. Meanwhile, the paper conducts an empirical study on the deficiency and profit margin of main export enterprises based on the data from 2005 to 2007. The result suggests that the market exaggerates the negative effect of RMB appreciation. The paper concludes that under conditions of steady tempo and right timing, because enterprises have enough time to react to the exchange rate, the appreciation would not only have little impact on the export enterprises, but also benefit to establish a reasonable expectation on the exchange rate.

Key words: RMB Appreciation, Export, Profit, Labor Demand