M1和M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究

统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (9): 64-69.

M1和M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究

耿中元惠晓峰

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-09-15 发布日期:2009-09-15

Study of the Applicability of M1 and M2 as a Monetary Policy Intermediate Target

Geng Zhongyuan & Hui Xiaofeng

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-09-15 Published:2009-09-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： M1、M2均符合可测性要求。稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明，M1比M2更具可控性。Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析结果和基于M1、M2相对增长速度的分析结果表明，M1与货币政策最终目标的相关性好于M2。因此，我国仍应将M1作为货币政策中介目标，将M2作为观测目标，并要加强对M1的相对增长速度的调控。

关键词: M1, M2, 中介目标, 相对增长速度

Abstract: M1, M2 are consistent with the requirements of testability. M1 is more controllable than M2, which can be seen from the results of stability test and granger causality test. Relevance of M1 with final goals of monetary policy is better than that of M2, which can be seen from the results of Johansen cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response analysis and the analysis of relative growth rate of M1,M2. Therefore, China should focus on M1 as an intermediate target of monetary policy and M2 as an observed target, and strengthen to regulate M1 relative growth rate.

Key words: M1, M2, Intermediate Target, Relative Growth Rate

耿中元惠晓峰. M1和M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究[J]. 统计研究, 2009, 26(9): 64-69.

Geng Zhongyuan &Hui Xiaofeng. Study of the Applicability of M1 and M2 as a Monetary Policy Intermediate Target[J]. Statistical Research, 2009, 26(9): 64-69.

[1]	程博等. 公共压力、企业国际化与企业环境治理[J]. 统计研究, 2018, 35(9): 54-66.
[2]	严雅雪齐绍洲. 外商直接投资与中国雾霾污染 [J]. 统计研究, 2017, 34(5): 69-81.
[3]	刘华军裴延峰. 我国雾霾污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验[J]. 统计研究, 2017, 34(3): 45-54.
[4]	黄宪夏仕龙. 货币政策中介目标M2的修正和新生[J]. 统计研究, 2015, 32(4): 14-20.
[5]	董承章 . 中国货币政策中介目标的选择与调控区间的确定[J]. 统计研究, 1999, 16(8): 20-24.