统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 38-44.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

地方政府支出与农村居民消费需求:基于1998-2007年省级 面板数据的经验分析

储德银 闫伟   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-08-15 发布日期:2009-08-15

Local Government Expenditure and Rural Residents’ Consumption demand: An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data of Provinces from 1998 to 2007

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-08-15 Published:2009-08-15

摘要: 政府支出对居民消费需求产生挤出抑或挤入效应是理论界最近关注的焦点之一。本文在理论诠释地方政府支出对农村居民消费需求的传导机制以及模型建立的理论框架下,通过建立地方政府支出与农村居民消费支出之间的个体固定效应变截距模型,运用我国31个省份1998-2007年的经验数据进行实证检验,结果表明:地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的挤入效应,而转移性支出与农村居民消费的相关程度并不明显。基于理论分析和实证检验结果,本文最后针对地方政府扩大农村居民消费提出相关建议。

关键词: 地方政府支出, 农村居民消费, 积极财政政策

Abstract: Whether the effect of government expenditure on residents’ consumption demand is positive is the recent focus of attention in academic field. Under the theoretical interpretation of transmission mechanism of government expenditure on rural residents’ consumption demand as well as the theoretical model framework, this paper establishes a variable intercept model of the fixed effect of local government expenditure on rural residents’ consumption demand from 1998 to2007 using the panel data of China’s 31 provinces. The conclusion is that the effect of local government expenditure of supporting agriculture on rural residents’ consumption demand is the positive, but that of transfer payments is not significant. 

Key words: Local Government Expenditure, Residents’ Consumption Demand, Expansionary Fiscal Policy