统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 32-37.
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宋瑞礼 任泽平
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摘要： 2008年下半年以来，中国经济增速大幅度下滑，与此同时电力消费增速出现更大幅度回落。因为电力消费对国民经济变动反应较为敏感，故此现象使一些人对我国GDP增长的真实性产生了怀疑。本文利用产业感应模型对此进行了深入研究。研究结果表明，在特定情况下，电力消费增速以比 GDP增速更大幅度回落是可能的。这对于正确认识当前经济形势具有重要意义。
关键词: 电力消费, GDP, 产业感应模型
Abstract: Since the second half of 2008，there has been a significant drop in economic growth accompanying a more substantial decline in electricity consumption. The electricity consumption is very sensitive to the national economy which has been considered as one of important indicators to measure the real situation of economy. Therefore, many people are doubt about the authenticity of GDP. This paper will do in-depth research on the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption with the industrial induction model. The conclusion shows that it is possible that the decline in the growth rate of GDP is accompanied with more substantial decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption under specified circumstances. It is of great significance to correctly understand the current economic situation.
Key words: Electricity Consumption, GDP, Industrial Induction Model
宋瑞礼 任泽平. 电力消费与GDP关系实证研究 ——基于投入产出产业感应模型 [J]. 统计研究, 2009, 26(8): 32-37.
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https://tjyj.stats.gov.cn/CN/Y2009/V26/I8/32
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