统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 24-31.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

政府消费与经济增长: 基于1985-2007年中国省际面板数据的实证分析

毛中根 洪涛   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-08-15 发布日期:2009-08-15

Government Consumption and Economic Growth:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces in China from 1985 to 2007

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-08-15 Published:2009-08-15

摘要: 在理论分析基础上,基于中国31个省(市、区)1985-2007年地区生产总值、政府消费、固定资产投资总额和年末在岗职工人数数据,运用面板数据的变截据和变系数相关模型对政府消费的增长效应进行计量检验。检验结果表明:在全国层面上政府消费的系数为4.656;在省(市、区)层面上,各地方政府消费的系数均大于零,但区域间存在显著差异。财政支出方式应逐步实现从政府投资向政府消费转变,并调整政府消费的内部结构、城乡结构和地区结构。

关键词: 政府消费, 经济增长, 面板数据模型

Abstract: According to panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1985 to 2007, we test the relation of government consumption and economic growth. Using models with variable intercepts and with variable coefficients, which involve the regional GDP, government consumption, investment and employment data, we conclude that in the range of the whole country the coefficient of government consumption is 4.656; and on the province level, all coefficient of regional government consumption is positive, but it’s significant difference between the coefficients. So the public expenditure should change from the government investment to the government consumption, and adjust the internal structural, the urban and rural areas structural and the district structural of government consumption.. 
 

Key words: Government Consumption, Economic Growth, Panel Data Model