统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 10-15.

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中国经济波动的外部因素:1992-2008

王义中 金雪军   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-08-15 发布日期:2009-08-15

The External factors of Economic Fluctuations in China:1992-2008

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-08-15 Published:2009-08-15

摘要: 文章讨论包括国际石油价格、世界利率、美元汇率和国外需求的外部因素冲击对中国宏观经济波动的影响。运用含外生变量的结构向量自回归模型进行计量分析,结果表明:外部冲击是中国宏观经济波动的重要来源;供给冲击与需求冲击作用相当,但后者对中国经济波动起着持久性作用;金融危机期间,需求冲击比供给冲击更重要。政策内涵是:宏观经济调控依据国内外经济动态变化相机调整,扩大国内需求,缓解国外需求对宏观经济的持久性冲击。说明在国际金融危机冲击下,需实施扩张性财政政策替代萎缩的私人投资刺激内需。

关键词: 经济周期, 含外生变量的结构向量自回归模型, 国外需求

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of external factors which include oil price, world interest rates, exchange rate of U.S. dollar and foreign demand on China’s business cycles. Estimated structural vector autoregression model with block exogeneity shows that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in China. Supply and demand shocks play the same role, but the latter is persistent. In the period of financial crisis, demand shock is more important than supply shock. The policy implication is that government should implement expansionary fiscal policy to replace declining private investment in order to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate permanent shock of foreign demand to economy.


 

Key words: Business Cycles, SVAR with Block Exogeneity, Foreign demand