关键词: 供给冲击, 需求冲击, 经济波动, SVAR模型

Abstract: This paper first calculates real GDP and GDP deflator index from the first quarter of 1992 to the third quarter of 2008 by means of the quarterly data adjusted after the national economic census in 2004. Then it builds a bivariate structural VAR model in the Blanchard and Quah’s methodology, and identifies demand and supply shocks in China’s economic fluctuations. It is concluded that: ① more than two-thirds of output variability is attributed to supply shocks either in the long run or in the short run; ② so far as the fluctuations of price level are concerned, the contribution of demand shocks nearly equals to that of supply shocks in the short run, while demand shocks account for 70 percent of the variability approximately in the long run；③ in sum, supply shocks is almost as important as demand shocks in shaping economic fluctuations in China. The conclusions have revelation significances for macro-control operation.

Key words: Supply shocks, Demand shocks, Economic fluctuations, Structural VAR model