统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 33-39.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国各地区市场化进程区位分布的空间效应研究

康继军 王卫 傅蕴英   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-05-15 发布日期:2009-05-15

Empirical Analysis on Spatial Linkages in Marketization of China’s Provinces

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-05-15 Published:2009-05-15

摘要: 本文从空间分析的角度研究各地区市场化进程的空间效应及其对区域经济增长绩效的影响,空间计量经济分析的结果表明市场化进程的空间分布在整个样本区间与GDP、资本和劳动一样呈现出集聚的趋势,区域差异显著,各地区的市场化进程在地理空间上存在显著的自相关关系,证实了各地区市场化进程存在制度溢出效应。因此,在研究各地区市场化进程与经济增长关系时必须考虑其空间效应的影响,基于此结论本文运用空间计量模型测算了各地区市场化进程对经济增长的贡献。结果证实,考虑了空间效应后,市场化进程在1998~2001年阶段对经济增长的贡献约为6.2%,在2002~2005年阶段约为10.8%,这表明了市场化对中国的经济增长起到了重要的作用,而且近年来的贡献愈加显著。

关键词: 空间效应, 制度溢出, 市场化指数, 空间计量经济学模型, 经济增长

Abstract: Using Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model, a spatial econometric analysis on institutional spillover effect of marketization degree in China’s provinces and the effect on regional economic growth is performed. The results of spatial analysis show that after nearly 30 years’ development of China’s provincial economies reform and opening, the spatial association becomes closer while geographical clustering obviously intensifies, and the institutional spillover effect among the provinces becomes confessedly. On this basis, we have used spatial econometric models in the contribution of regional marketization on regional growth. The result shows that, on account of spatial institutional spillover effect, the marketization reform explains 6.2 percent of the growth rate for the period 1998-2001 and 10.8 percent of the growth rate for the period 2001-2005, which proves marketization plays an important role in China economy growth.


 

Key words: Spatial Linkage, Institutional Spillover Effect, Index of Marketization, Spatial Econometric Models, Economic Growth