关键词: 事先承诺, 相机抉择, 福利损失

Abstract: Considering the loss of welfare and the economy stabilization，this paper gives an analysis on the selection between the precommitment optimal monetary policy and the discretion optimal monetary policy in China. On the one hand，we compare the dynamic response of the economy following a one-unit cost-push shock，demand shock and real exchange rate shock under precommitment and discretion. We find that under precommitment the impacts of there shocks on the economy stabilization are smaller than the impact under discretion. On the other hand，we find that in the discretionary equilibrium，output is over-stabilized while inflation is too volatile，leading to lower welfare than under precommitment. Therefore，it is reasonable for central bank to justify institutional reforms adopting the precommitment monetary policy rule in Chinese actual economies and actively create necessary conditions for implementing this policy rule.

Key words: Precommitment, Discretion, Welfare Loss