统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 43-49.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

城乡投入产出模型的构建及应用

王妍 石敏俊   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-02-15 发布日期:2009-02-15

The compilation and application of rural-urban input-output model

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-02-15 Published:2009-02-15

摘要: 推进城乡一体化,需要深入理解工农之间的产业关联和城乡之间的相互作用。构建城乡投入产出模型,对于定量分析农业部门与产业之间及城乡之间的经济联系,具有不可比拟的优势。本研究基于2002年全国投入产出表数据,对农业部门进行了细化,构建了77部门城乡投入产出模型,并测算了种植业和畜牧业部门的影响力、感应度系数和依赖系数。计算结果表明:影响力和感应度系数的结果基本符合我国农业的发展现状和基本特点;依赖系数量化了各农业部门产出对消费、投资和出口的依赖关系,揭示了粮食作物是以消费拉动为主、棉麻以出口拉动为主、林业和木材对投资依赖较高的格局, 分析结果验证了模型的科学性和可靠性。

关键词: 统筹城乡, 城乡投入产出模型, 诱发系数

Abstract: Deeply understanding the industrial linkage between industry and agriculture and the interaction between rural and urban area is important to promote the integration process of rural and urban areas. The compilation of rural-urban input-output model is a powerful tool to quantitatively analyze the economic linkage between the urban and rural areas. The agricultural sector in 2002 input-output table was split into 23 sectors and a rural-urban input-output model of 77 sectors was compiled. In the meanwhile, diffusion coefficient, inducing coefficient and sensitivity coefficient were calculated in the planting sectors and livestock sectors. The results were showed as follows. Firstly,the diffusion coefficient and sensitivity coefficient were in line with the agricultural development of China. Secondly,the results of inducing coefficient explained the relationship of the consumption, investment and export in the planting sectors, and the development of the production of food crops depended on consumption; Thirdly,export had an important impact on the production of cotton and hemp,and investment promoted the production of the forestry and timber. Finally,the results verified the reliability of the model.


 

Key words: Urban and rural issues, Rural-Urban input-output model, diffusion coefficient