关键词: 保险业总产出, 期望法, ARMA, 国际改进方法

Abstract: With the high-speed development of insurance in China, insurance accounting becomes more important in an economy. Huge losses resulting from more frequent natural disasters and terrorist attacks make great impacts on the formula recommended by the System of National Accounts(1993)(93SNA) for estimating insurance output. Measuring insurance output according to the arithmetic of 93SNA strictly would lead to absurd results. Firstly this paper introduces several popular improved methods and analyzes the advantage and disadvantage of each one deeply. These methods are important and enlighten to improve the measurement of insurance output in China. Secondly this paper estimates Guangdong provincial insurance output of 2006 and 2007 using the expectation approach and compares the results. Finally this paper puts forward several suggestions to improve the method for insurance accounting.

Key words: insurance output, the expectation approach, ARMA, international revision