中国宏观经济失衡指数研究

统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (10): 10-14.

中国宏观经济失衡指数研究

李宝瑜

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-10-15 发布日期:2009-10-15

Research on Macroeconomic Disequilibrium Index of China

Li Baoyu

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-10-15 Published:2009-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文将我国宏观经济划分为5大领域，13个类别，再细分为32个组，设置了93个年度宏观经济失衡指标，提出了判断经济失衡的8个标准和确定均衡值的9种方法，按年度测算了每个指标的失衡度，在此基础上用组合权重和层次分析方法逐层综合，构建了一个宏观经济失衡指数，实际测算了2001-2007年我国宏观经济总体失衡度。分析了我国宏观经济各主要方面的失衡情况并提出了相应的政策建议。

Abstract: In this paper, China’s macroeconomic system is divided into 5 fields and 13 subclasses, on the basis of this division, 93 annual macroeconomic disequilibrium indicators, 8 disequilibrium criterias, and 9 equilibrium values determine methods have been developed. We calculated the disequilibrium value of each annual indicator and obtained a macroeconomic disequilibrium index by integrating the indicators layer by layer using combination weight process and AHP. Moreover, we calculated the total disequilibrium indexes of China from 2001 to 2007, analyzed the disequilibrium degree of the main aspects of China, and gave some corresponding policy suggestions in the end.

Key words: Economic Disequilibrium, Economic Equilibrium, Statistical Index, Statistical Weighting

李宝瑜. 中国宏观经济失衡指数研究[J]. 统计研究, 2009, 26(10): 10-14.

Li Baoyu. Research on Macroeconomic Disequilibrium Index of China[J]. Statistical Research, 2009, 26(10): 10-14.