关键词: 人均GDP, 翻两番, 区间估算, 科学发展观

Abstract: “Quadrupling the per capita GDP of the year 2000 by 2020” is a new term in the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China（CPC）which depicts the basic developing target clearly which China has to achieve in the most of the important period of strategic opportunities. Based on the time-series data of population’s natural growth rate, this paper uses the method of shift-averaging and the mathematical growth rate decomposing to estimate the annual growth rate of per capita GDP, the result indicates that we need to strictly carry out the Family Planning Policy, to control the economic growth rate in each period, to put the macroeconomic control policies into effect and complete the each accessory task of the 17th National Congress of CPC. The developing target of quadrupling the per capita GDP can be fully achieved in the frame of scientific concept for development.

Key words: Per capita GDP, Quadrupling, Interval estimation, Scientific concept for development