未被观测经济规模估算： 收支差异法的适用性与创新性研究

统计研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (12): 79-84.

未被观测经济规模估算：收支差异法的适用性与创新性研究

徐蔼婷

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-12-15 发布日期:2008-12-15

Estimation of the Size of Non-observed Economy: the Applicability and Innovation of the Method of Income and Expenditure Discrepancies

Xu Aiting

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-12-15 Published:2008-12-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： NOE在我国已经形成了相当规模，对国民经济的正常运行造成了不容忽视的影响。本文分析了收支差异法的估算途径，一方面重点探讨了国民账户收支差异法对中国NOE估算实践的可行性，另一方面根据社会资金运动规律，考察了住户部门的资金来源和资金运用，提出了从单个机构部门估算NOE规模的方法——微观差异法。最后，运用新方法实现了1985—2006年中国NOE规模的估算。

关键词: 未被观测经济规模, 收支差异, 住户部门, 资金运动

Abstract: Non-observed Economy (NOE) in China has already had a considerable size，and the impacts of it on the normal operation of national economy can not be ignored. This paper analyses the estimation means based on the method pf incomes and expenditures discrepancies. On one hand, we focus on the feasibility of the method of national accounts discrepancy in China. On the other hand, on the ground of the law of social funds movement, through inspecting sources of capital and uses of capital of the household sector，we put forward a new method named microscopic differences method. Finally, we use the new method to successfully estimate the NOE size of China from 1985 to 2006.

Key words: Non-observed economy, Income and expenditure discrepancy, Household sector, Funds movement

徐蔼婷. 未被观测经济规模估算：收支差异法的适用性与创新性研究 [J]. 统计研究, 2008, 25(12): 79-84.

Xu Aiting. Estimation of the Size of Non-observed Economy: the Applicability and Innovation of the Method of Income and Expenditure Discrepancies[J]. Statistical Research, 2008, 25(12): 79-84.

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