关键词: 房地产预警, 有偏性, 长期趋势, 置信度

Abstract: This paper analyzes the biasness drawbacks of single index’ wave equilibrium value and standard deviation in China’s real estate risk early-warning system. Based on the reason analysis, improving thoughts of index’ eigenvalue are advanced in term of long-term trend theory and confidence interval theory. The case studies show: improving thoughts may validly resolve the contradiction between normal early-warning interval and objective reality, which are benefit to improve the accurately degree of early-warning system.

Key words: Real estate early-warning, Biasness, Long-term trend, Degree of confidence