统计研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (10): 103-108.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

分析师利益与投资建议的信息含量

刘 昶;修世宇   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-10-15 发布日期:2008-10-15

Financial Analysts’ Interests and Information Content of Stock Recommendations

Liu Chang;Xiu Shiyu   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-10-15 Published:2008-10-15

摘要: 内容提要:本文分析了证券分析师的利益和我国证券分析师投资建议的信息含量。本文发现,证券分析师投资建议大多为“买入”或“中性”建议,而“卖出”建议却很少。通过对投资建议发布日附近股票超额回报率和超常交易量的研究,本文发现“买入”、“卖出”建议分别会引起股价的永久性上涨和下跌,而“中性”建议不会对股价产生显著影响。此外,被建议“买入”和“卖出”的股票的交易量也会明显地增加,特别是在建议发布的当日。这些现象说明,投资者认为分析师的建议包含了有价值的信息,因而相应地调整了对未来收益的预期以及当前最优的持股数量。股票交易的活跃给证券公司带来了佣金收入,作为对他们向市场传递有价值信息的回报。

关键词: 关键词:分析师, 股票推荐, 信息含量, 交易量

Abstract: Abstract: This paper investigates the interests of financial analysts and the information content of financial analysts’ recommendations in China. We find that, most of the recommendations issued by analysts are buy and hold recommendations; while only a few are sell recommendations. By examining the abnormal stock return and abnormal trading volume around the recommendation announcements, we find that buy and sell recommendations will lead to permanent price changes, rise for buy recommendations and fall for sell, while neutral recommendations do not have significant impacts on stock price. Additionally, trading volume for the stocks receiving buy and sell recommendations is highly above normal level, especially on the announcement date. These empirical results suggest that investors perceive financial analysts’ recommendations to possess valuable information, and thus accordingly adjust the expectations of future returns and alter optimal share holdings in the portfolios.


 

Key words: Key words: Analyst, Stock recommendation, Information content, Trading volume