统计研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 64-69.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国宏观经济预警体系的评价与修正

石良平   

  1. 华东理工大学
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-01-15 发布日期:2007-01-15

The Evaluation and Revision of Macro-Economic Early Warning System of China

Shi Liangping   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-01-15 Published:2007-01-15

摘要: 摘  要:中国宏观经济预警体系建立于20世纪90年代初,十多年来为国家宏观调控提供了可靠的信息,成为宏观调控的主要依据之一。然而,进入本世纪以来,中国经济的运行格局发生了重大变化,导致预警体系的敏感度和预测精度出现了偏差,已经到了需要修正的时候。本文在对中国宏观预警体系分析与评价的基础上,对体系的结构与指标提出了修正的思路与方案。

Abstract: Abstract:The Chinese macroeconomic early-warning system was established in 1990s. The past decade has witnessed its functioning via providing reliable information for national regulations at a macro level. Consequendy, the system becomes one of the major indicating factors in the process of macro-level regulations. However, as we move into the new millennium, the Chinese economic system has changed significantly, which leads to some degree of deviation from the system' s original sensitivity and reliability. It is high time we make improvements as needed. Based on an analysis and evaluation of the macro early-warning system in Chinese context, this paper aims to put forward some guidelines and plans for the modification and correction of the system's structure and indicators.


 

Key words: Key words:economic fluctuations, early-warning system, evaluation and revision