统计研究 ›› 2006, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (12): 41-44.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

小规模人口群体死亡力的测定——基于对策论的贝叶斯估计方法

黄荣清   

  1. 首都经济贸易大学
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-12-15 发布日期:2006-12-15

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-12-15 Published:2006-12-15

Abstract: Abstract:Generally, when we have to give a social evaluation or make a population prediction about an area, we measure the level of death firsdy. But when it comes to a small area or a small population, the death indexes, such as age-specific death rate, will fluctuate irregularly, if we get it form the census data with the common methods. There are several methods to resolve it. But few scholars in China use Bayesian estimation method which base on decision-making theory. The author consider that this way is simple and efficient, it is worthy of generalizing