统计研究 ›› 2006, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (10): 55-58.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国宏观经济和金融总量平稳性的再思考

滕建州   

  1. 东北师范大学
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-10-15 发布日期:2006-10-15

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-10-15 Published:2006-10-15

Abstract: Abstract:This paper applies minimum financial series that allow for the multiple LM unit-root testing to examine 10 Chinese macroeconomic and possibility of up to two endogenous structural breaks. We find that 9 out of 10 series, which are GDP, GDP per capita, total number of employed persons, nominal wages, real wages, bank credit, deposit liabilities, final consumption and trade, can be more accurately characterized as a segmented trend stationary process around one or two structural breaks as opposed to a stochastic unit root process. The conclusions have important implications for policy-makers to formulate long-term economic growth strategy and short-run stabilization policies, as well as investigate the relationship among the variables