统计研究 ›› 2005, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 45-4.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于PDL模型的城市化水平预测

丁刚;赵萍萍   

  1. 兰州大学;河南省平顶山天鹰集团
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2005-03-15 发布日期:2005-03-15

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2005-03-15 Published:2005-03-15

Abstract: In the previous research, when the economic factor forecasting solution of Urbanization was used into practice, the users almost always ignored the effects of the lagged economic development factors. The accuracy of the forecasting should be decreased seriously by this way. In this paper, taking Gansu province as an example, the authors try to improve the forecasting accuracy on the basis of the unrestricted PDL (Polynomial Distributed Lag‘)Models. In the context, the ARIMA Models and CPPS software are also applied to finish the forecasting more accurately.