统计研究 ›› 2005, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (10): 50-7.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

国家风险与重新安排债务的概率——亚洲5国的实证研究

连秀花;张金水   

  1. 清华大学
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2005-10-15 发布日期:2005-10-15

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2005-10-15 Published:2005-10-15

Abstract: Abstract:Using probit analyses, this paper identifies those risk factors that have an influence on the occurrence of debt rescheduling for five Asian countries that were badly hit by the Asian financial crisis of 1997 - 1998. Our results indicate that the real growth of GDP,the ratio of public debt to GDP,the amortization rate and changes in the real exchange rate were among the important factors that characterize the probability of debt rescheduling in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand for 1980 - 2001. Our investigation also reveals the limitations of using probit analyses to study country risk