关键词: James Bernoulli, James Benoulli家族, 概率论历史, 《推测术》, 大数定律

Abstract: Two hundred and eighty-nine years ago, "Arts of conjecturing", the posthumous work of the great mathematician James Bernoulli, was finally produced in the eager wait of mathematicians, Ian Hacking, a famous historian of statistics, commented that the publication of the book signaled the beginning of the mathematical theory of probability and terminated man’s long process in the forming of the probability concept By introducing James Bernoulli and his "Arts of conjecturing", this paper aims at providing the reader with the 18th century story of Bemoulli’s work, and at making the reader know that even today Bemoulli’s idea is very helpful and instructive in the research of modern statistics.