统计研究 ›› 2001, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (11): 43-47.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

论统计平均法在证券技术分析中的应用

李心渝   

  • 出版日期:2001-11-15 发布日期:2011-09-29

The Approach to the Application of Statistical Average Methods to the Technical Analysis on Security

LI Xin-Yu   

  • Online:2001-11-15 Published:2011-09-29

摘要: 平均法是统计分析方法的核心,是统计学的基础和精髓,是大数定律统计思想的极好体现,也是证券技术分析领域中应用最为广泛的统计方法。尽管各种证券技术分析方法丰富多彩,令人眼花缭乱,但平均法却始终发挥着最重要的作用。

Abstract: Technical analysis is based upon there fundamental assumptions: (1) the behavior of market embodies all information; (2) stock market move along trends; and (3) history will recur, which established statistical averages method’s dominant role in securities analysis. Although statistical averages method is very popular in practice, its power is diminished by some misforcasting. There are many factors, which may cause misforcasting. One of the most important factors is that the conditions required for statistical analysis and forecasting are not satisfied. If the movement of stock prices, for the most part, is normally distributed, the application of statistical inference, moving averages method and regression analysis in securities analysis will have satisfactory results.