统计研究 ›› 1998, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (3): 14-17.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国股市:规律与风险——统计思维中的股市运行

毛迅   

  • 出版日期:1998-03-15 发布日期:2012-02-14

China’s Stock Market: Regularity and Risk——Motion of Stock Market in Statistical Thinking

MAO Xun   

  • Online:1998-03-15 Published:2012-02-14

Abstract: Are there any regularity in securities? and how to hold it? The author considers that all the economic phenomena appear uncertainty in short term, but will certainly show up some intrinsic regularity( statistical regularity) after a long period motion, no exception for China’s stock market. Under statistical regularity, the emotion of stock market can be decomposed into long-term trend, periodical change, seasonal change and irregular fluctuation. Do these four factors result in unfathomable prices changes on the market. However, in the actual situation, stock market is a synthetically motion of these four changes which cannot be divided absolutely, in the whole emotion, irregular changes in turn make the market superficial no regularity to follow in short term and full of risk. In accordance with the nature of a new market, it should adhere to three principles to develop China’s securities: enhancing standard, overall plan of investment fund, reinforcing supervision.