关键词: 产业关联, 虚拟消去法(假设抽取法), 非竞争型投入产出模型, 后向关联, 前向关联

Abstract: The measurement and analysis of inter-industry linkages is the main application field of inputoutput method. At present,the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) has become a popular empirical research paradigm of inter-industry linkages besides classical methods.The main purpose of this method is to use hypothesis to “extract” the linkage effects of some industries in the general framework of input-output model,and then measure the effect of inter-industry linkages by comparing the output changes of the whole economic system before and after the extraction.The analysis shows that the current HEM misuses the competitive input-output model and relevant analytical hypothesis,cannot properly consider the changes in coefficients and flows that are retained after extracting some coefficients,and cannot correctly distinguish the backward linkages,forward linkages and total linkages,which leads to various problems in its measurement methods and results.Firstly,the analytical hypothesis and model are modified to construct a partially improved HEM.The improved method can coordinate the measurement results of the Leontief model and the Ghosh model,indicating that the HEM itself has the property of both backward linkages and forward linkages to some extent,but the results of various HEM (including improved HEM) and classical measurement methods are significantly different.Further research based on the improved HEM shows that there are fundamental defects in the analysis basis of the Hypothetical Extraction Method (i.e. the way to break the integrity of the economic system in measuring inter-industry linkages),which makes it difficult to give a precise and reasonable economic explanation for the measurement results (including the partially improved HEM).There are not parallel and different meanings between the HEM and the classical measurement methods of inter-industry linkages.HEM has no independent or important significance for the measurement and analysis of inter-industry linkages.

Key words: Inter-industry Linkages, Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM), Non-competitive Input-Output Model, Backward Linkages, Forward Linkages