统计研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 3-19.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.05.001

• •    下一篇

数字经济与全球制造业增加值贸易网络演进

邓慧慧 徐 昊 王 强   

  • 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2023-05-25

Digital Economy and Evolution of Global Manufacturing Value-Added Trade Network

Deng Huihui Xu Hao Wang Qiang   

  • Online:2023-05-25 Published:2023-05-25

摘要: 数字经济发展对全球制造业增加值贸易网络产生系统性冲击。本文基于ADB?MRIO2022数据库,应用前沿的有向加权复杂网络分析方法刻画2010—2021年全球制造业增加值贸易网络特征、动态演化趋势和我国制造业在全球增加值贸易网络中的地位变化,并实证检验数字经济对一国制造业增加值贸易网络地位的影响。研究发现,制造业增加值贸易的区域化属性逐渐增强,其中美洲地区(包括北美洲和南美洲)最为明显,美国正逐步分散贸易风险,实现出口市场多元化,降低其主导的局域网络脆弱性,而中国对美国的贸易依存度过大,不利于以中国为主导的局域网络应对特定性冲击。中国在全球制造业增加值贸易网络中占据中心地位,但在高技术制造业网络中还有进一步上升空间。发展数字经济在总体上有利于提高一国在全球制造业增加值贸易网络中对核心资源的控制能力,占据“织网者”优势,扩大贸易影响力,但仅对处在网络中心与近中心的国家的接近中心性有显著促进作用。新兴经济体要打破发达国家的制造业封锁困境,必须提升增加值贸易流量与价值创造能力,实现主要出口对象国相对多元化。本文发现逆全球化产业链供应链重构具有长期结构性特征,揭示了利用数字经济推动我国制造业从中低端迈向高端,充分释放自身蕴藏的巨大发展空间具有重要性和迫切性。

关键词: 数字经济, 增加值贸易网络, 复杂网络分析

Abstract: The development of digital economy has a systemically impact on the global manufacturing value-added trade network. Based on the ADB?MRIO2022 database, this paper uses cutting-edge directed weighted complex network analysis method to characterize the characteristics, dynamic evolutionary trend of the global manufacturing value-added trade network and position change of China?s manufacturing industry in the global value-added trade network from 2010 to 2021, and empirically examines the impact of digital economy on the position of a country?s manufacturing industry in the value-added trade network. The results show that the regionalization of value-added trade in manufacturing industry is increasing, especially in Americas, the United States is gradually dispersing trade risk, diversifying export markets, reducing the vulnerability of its dominant local area network, yet China’s high trade dependence on the United States is not conducive to China-oriented local network dealing with specific impact. China occupies a central position in the global manufacturing value-added trade network, but there is room for further rise in the high-tech manufacturing network. On the whole, the development of digital economy is conducive to improving a country?s ability to control core resources, hold netting advantage and expand trade influence in the global manufacturing value-added trade network, but it can only significantly promote the closeness centrality of countries in the center and near center of the network. In order to break the manufacturing blockade dilemma of developed countries, emerging economies must enhance value-added trade flow and value creation ability, and realize the relative diversification of main export target countries. This paper finds that the reconstruction of the anti-globalization industry chain and supply chain may have long-term structural characteristics, revealing the great importance and urgency of using digital economy to promote China?s manufacturing industry from low and middle end to high end and fully release its huge potential of development.

Key words: Digital Economy, Value-added Trade Network, Complex Network Analysis