统计研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 3-17.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.03.001

• •    下一篇

供需双循环测度与中国经济平稳增长

侯俊军 岳有福 叶家柏   

  • 出版日期:2023-03-25 发布日期:2023-03-25

The Measurement of Supply and Demand Dual Circulation and China՚s Steady Economic Growth

Hou Junjun Yue Youfu Ye Jiabai   

  • Online:2023-03-25 Published:2023-03-25

摘要: 本文基于新发展格局“经济循环”的内涵特征构建了一个理解双循环的分析框架,从企业间中间产品供给循环和对企业的最终产品需求循环视角测度了我国供给端和需求端双循环,并通过结构分解分析(Structural Decomposition Analysis,SDA)方法探究了双循环视角下我国经济的平稳增长。研究发现:我国经济发展呈现出以国内循环为主体的显著特征,国内循环占比超过74%。供给端双循环中,内资企业间循环和内外资企业间循环占比在上升,而国内外企业间循环占比在下降,但仍在我国经济发展中扮演重要角色;需求端双循环中,国外对国外企业的最终产品需求对经济发展的重要性仅次于我国对内资企业的最终产品需求。SDA结果表明,国内循环发挥了经济增长的稳定器作用,国内循环效应对经济增长的贡献度始终保持在76%以上,尤其是需求端我国对内资企业的最终产品需求和供给端内资企业间循环的贡献度表现突出。和内资企业一样,外资企业也在促进内外经济循环中发挥了重要作用,表现为内外资企业间循环不仅拉动了我国的经济增长,更是促进我国经济平稳增长的关键因素。本文的研究丰富了对于构建新发展格局的认识,也为解释我国经济的平稳增长提供了一个新的视角。

关键词: 国内国际双循环, 供给循环, 需求循环, SDA方法, 经济平稳增长

Abstract: Based on the connotation and characteristics of economic circulation in the new development pattern, this paper constructs an analytical framework to understand the dual circulation, measures China?s supply-side and demand-side dual circulation from the perspective of inter-enterprise intermediate product supply circulation and demand circulation for enterprises? final products, and explores China?s steady economic growth from the perspective of dual circulation through the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method. It is found that China?s economic development presents a significant feature of the domestic circulation as the main body (accounting for more than 74%). In the supply side dual circulation, the proportion of circulation between domestic-funded enterprises and between domestic-funded and foreign-funded enterprises is rising, while the proportion of circulation between domestic and foreign enterprises is declining but still plays an important role in China?s economic development. In the demand side dual circulation, the importance of foreign demand for final products of foreign enterprises to economic development is second only to China?s demand for final products of domestic-funded enterprises. SDA results show that domestic circulation plays a stabilizing role in economic growth, and the contribution of domestic circulation effect to China?s economic growth has always been maintained at more than 76%, especially the contribution of China?s demand for final products of domestic-funded enterprises on the demand side and the circulation between domestic-funded enterprises on the supply side. Like domestic-funded enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises also play an important role in promoting the domestic and foreign economic circulation, as the circulation between domestic-funded and foreign-funded enterprises not only drives China?s economic growth, but also is the key factor to promoting China?s steady economic growth. The research of this paper not only enriches the understanding of building a new development pattern, but also provides a new perspective on explaining China?s steady economic growth.

Key words: Domestic and International Dual Circulation, Supply Circulation, Demand Circulation, SDA Method, Steady Economic Growth