统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 55-68.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.12.004

• • 上一篇    下一篇

环境规制与企业绿色创新——基于“大气十条”政策的实证研究

唐礼智 周 林 杨梦俊   

  • 出版日期:2022-12-25 发布日期:2022-12-25

Environmental Regulation and Enterprise Green Innovation: An Empirical Study Based on the Implementation of Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control

Tang Lizhi Zhou Lin Yang Mengjun   

  • Online:2022-12-25 Published:2022-12-25

摘要: 本文以“大气十条”政策为例,使用双重差分法和机器学习方法来探讨命令控制型环境规制工具对企业绿色创新水平的影响。基于2007—2017年上市公司绿色专利数据,双重差分法的回归结果显示,“大气十条”政策的实施对企业绿色专利总水平、绿色发明专利水平和绿色实用专利水平均有显著的促进作用;在采用PSM-DID、面板Tobit等方法进行一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。文中进一步采用广义随机森林模型中因果森林进行异质性分析。在构建森林的过程中发现,企业规模和企业性质是影响绿色创新最重要的两个分裂变量。通过因果森林对连续变量企业规模的异质性分析发现,在“大气十条”政策的影响下,企业规模与绿色专利总水平、绿色实用专利水平先呈“倒U型”关系再呈“U型”关系,与绿色发明专利水平呈“倒U型”关系。这一结果表明,在进行绿色实用专利研发上,小企业和大企业各自发挥了自身的比较优势;在进行绿色发明专利研发上,规模较大的企业激励相对不足。进一步分析表明,为了提高绿色创新水平,企业会加大研发资金和人员的投入,绿色创新的实现可以降低企业的单位排污成本、提高企业的竞争力。本文的研究结果为“波特假说”提供了新的经验证据,为推动我国绿色创新发展提供富有针对性实证参考。

关键词: “大气十条”, 绿色创新, 广义随机森林, 因果森林

Abstract: Regarding the implementation of Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control (APAPPC) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs difference-in-differences (DID) method and the machine learning method to explore the impact of command-and-control environmental regulation tools on enterprise green innovation. Based on the green patent data of listed companies from 2007 to 2017, the difference-in-differences estimations show that the implementation of the APAPPC has significantly promoted the level of the total green patents, the green invention patents, and the green utility patents. The conclusion still holds after using the PSM-DID model and panel Tobit model. This paper further uses causal forests in the generalized random forest model to test heterogeneity. In the process of growing the forests, the research finds that scale and ownership of enterprises are the two most important splitting variables affecting green innovation. The heterogeneity analysis on enterprise scale suggests that with the impact of the APAPPC, the relationship between enterprise scale and the proportion of the total green patents, the proportion of the green utility patents is initially inverted U-shaped, and then turns U-shaped, while the relationship between enterprise scale and the proportion of the green invention patents is inverted U-shaped. This result shows that enterprises with small and large scale have their comparative advantages in the research and development of green utility patents, and large-scale enterprises lack motivations in the development of green invention patents compared with small-scale enterprises. Further analysis suggests that enterprises may increase R&D investment to improve green innovation capability, and the realization of green innovation contributes to reducing the unit emission cost and enhancing enterprises’ competitiveness. The results of this paper provide new empirical evidence for the “Porter Hypothesis”, and help to form some suggestions for promoting green innovation in China.

Key words: Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, Green Innovation, Generalized Random Forests, Causal Forests