统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 88-103.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.09.007

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财政转移支付带来了地区生产效率提升吗?——基于省际对口支援与中央转移支付的比较研究

徐 明   

  • 出版日期:2022-09-25 发布日期:2022-09-25

Does Fiscal Transfer Payment Bring about Regional Productivity Improvement? Based on a Comparative Study of Inter-provincial Counterpart Assistance and Central Transfer Payment

Xu Ming   

  • Online:2022-09-25 Published:2022-09-25

摘要: 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》(以下简称《建议》)强调在西部贫困地区要增强巩固脱贫成果和内生发展能力。本文基于我国地级面板数据,借助“西部大开发”和省际间“对口支援”两次区域发展战略,采用项目评价中的双重差分方法,比较研究了中央纵向转移支付和省际横向转移支付的政策效果、禀赋条件和作用机制。研究发现,第一,中央转移支付和对口支援的转移支付均可以有效推进欠发达地区总体劳动生产率攀升,因而两类不同性质的转移支付均具有减贫效应,并且转移支付对生产率的提升效应在一定程度上依赖于经济禀赋条件。第二,转移支付的政策效应存在产业异质性。具体而言,西部大开发的中央转移支付主要提高了西部地区农业生产效率,省际对口支援的转移支付既提高了受援地区农业生产效率,也改善了非农产业生产效率。进一步地,从转移支付引致的生产性支出和人口城镇化两方面进行政策效应的机制识别。第三,转移支付执行的政策背景和经济发展阶段不同、实施主体和支援方式是否多元化和多样性,以及支持强度和目标差异是上述两次区域政策异质性效果的重要原因。本文研究对于理解财政转移支付如何影响欠发达地区发展以及新发展阶段推动减贫战略和工作体系平稳转型具有一定启示作用。

关键词: 中央转移支付, 对口支援, 生产性支出, 生产效率

Abstract: The CPC Central Committee’s 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-Term Goals Proposals emphasize the need to strengthen and consolidate poverty elimination achievements and endogenous development capacity in impoverished areas in western China. Based on China?s 1996—2016 prefecture-level panel data, this paper uses the DID method from Western Development and inter-provincial counterpart assistance as two major regional development strategies, to compare the policy effects,endowment conditions, and mechanism of central vertical transfer payments and inter-provincial horizontal transfer payments. The research finds that: First, both central transfer payments and inter-provincial counterpart assistance can effectively promote the overall increase in labor productivity in underdeveloped regions (which to some extent depends on the economic endowment conditions), and therefore both have a poverty reduction effect. Second, the policy effects of transfer payments have industrial heterogeneity. Specifically, the central transfer payment in Western Development mainly improves the western agricultural productivity, while the transfer payments in the inter-provincial counterpart assistance promotes both agricultural and non-agricultural productivities in the assisted regions. Furthermore, this article has identified the mechanism of policy effects from the production expenditures and population urbanization caused by transfer payments. Third, the different policy backgrounds and economic levels in the implementation of transfer payment, the degree of diversity in implementing actors and assistance models, and difference in support intensity and goals are the important reasons for the heterogeneous effects of the above two regional policies. The research in this paper has some implications for understanding how fiscal transfer payments affect the development of underdeveloped regions and the smooth transition of poverty reduction strategies and work systems in the new development stage.

Key words: Central Transfer Payment, Counterpart Assistance, Productive Expenditure, Production Efficiency