关键词: 供应链脆弱性, 贸易网络分析, 出口中心度变异指数, 进口集中度指数

Abstract: Currently the supply chain security becomes a prominent factor affecting the stability of each country?s economic development, and is a major issue with overall and long-term significance. With bilateral product-level trade data during 2017 to 2020, this paper uses the trade network analysis method and provides a comprehensive analysis on the overall characteristics and inherent fragility of China and global supply chain. We draw three main conclusions. First, most of global supply chain fragile products are from skill-intensive industries. In particular, the supply chain fragility of developed economies mainly depends on their political and economic alliances, while developing economies generally show more dependence on their regional community. Second, China has obvious export advantage on more than 80 percent of highly fragile intermediate products, but it also relies on developed economies or their multinational enterprises for some high-quality mechanical and electrical and chemical products and developing economies for some resource-intensive products. Third, during the period 2018—2020 when trade conflicts and COVID-19 occurred, the supply chain fragility of key products of China and America reduces significantly compared with other products. This may reflect the change in the supply chain arrangement of key products from mainly focusing on efficiency to balancing efficiency and security. This paper provides a quantitative method to measure each country?s supply chain fragility more comprehensively and objectively. Meanwhile, we provide specific policy reference for China to shore up weak links in manufacturing sectors and strengthen its industrial foundation and capabilities. Based on the fragility of supply chain, we divide Chinese imported intermediate goods into four groups, and suggest that China overcomes the fragility of the supply chain with comprehensive policies, including shoring up weak links from supply side, diversifying import from demand side, international coordination and cooperation.

Key words: Supply Chain Fragility, Trade Network Analysis, Export Centrality Variance Index, Import Concentration Index