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### 基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

• 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-09-27

### The Effect of Population Migration and Wuhan Lockdown on the Control of COVID-19 Based on vSEIdRm Model

Gu Jia Chen Songxi Dong Qian Qiu Yumou

• Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-09-27

Abstract: Different from the traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) epidemic model, based on the vSEIdR ( Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed) model in our previous study, in this paper we add a population migration compartment and propose the vSEIdRm model, which takes the effect of cross-regional migration on the epidemic into consideration and allows the parameters to vary with time. We first conduct statistical analysis on the population migration data and connect the migration with the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. Further, based on the new model, we estimate the would-be imported cases to the provinces from Wuhan in the absence of Wuhan lockdown which quantifies the effect of the Wuhan lockdown. Our results show that the Wuhan lockdown effectively reduces the scale of the epidemic in other provinces.