统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 60-74.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.09.005

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空气污染治理与公众健康———来自“大气十条”政策的证据

范丹 叶昱圻 王维国   

  • 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-09-27

Air Pollution Control and Public Health:Evidence from “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” in China

FanDan Ye Yuqi Wang Weiguo   

  • Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-09-27

摘要: 为探究《大气污染防治行动计划》 (以下简称“大气十条”)的健康效应,本文基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据及省级面板数据,利用基于多项Logit模型的双重差分法(Logit-DID),从微观与宏观两个维度考察“大气十条”政策的健康改善效应及其传导机制,并进一步通过异质性分析探讨环境健康不平等的内在原因 研究发现:“大气十条”实施带来显著的健康效应,该政策不仅能有效控制与空气污染高度相关疾病的发病率和死亡占比,还能够间接降低受空气污染影响较小的疾病病情。其作用机理主要通过控制PM2.5浓度改善公众健康,同时该政策对二氧化硫(SO2)、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘等其 他污染物浓度的下降起到了协同作用。进一步分析显示环境福利不公平的现象依然存在,“大气十条”政 策显著降低了疾病高发人群的发病率,且对女性、城镇居民和低、高年龄段等疾病高发人群的健康影响更显著。本文为政府构建环境健康公平发展路径,推进“健康中国”战略提供了经验证据和政策借鉴。

关键词: “大气十条”, 健康效应, 双重差分模型

Abstract: To explore the health effects of “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” (hereinafter referred to as the Policy), this paper is based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data and provincial panel data, uses the DID method based on Multinomial Logit Model (Logit-DID), from micro and macro dimensions to investigate health effects and transmission mechanism of the Policy, and further conducts heterogeneity analysis to investigate the internal causes of environmental health inequalities. This paper finds that the Policy can not only effectively control the incidence rate and proportion of death highly related to air pollution, but also indirectly reduce the diseases less affected by air pollution, and the health effects of the Policy are significant. Its transmission mechanism is to improve public health by controlling PM2. 5 concentration and have synergy in reducing the concentration of SO2 , NOx, smoke (dust) and other pollutants. Further analysis shows that the phenomenon of environmental welfare inequality still exists. The Policy has significantly reduced the incidence rate among people with a high incidence of diseases, and the health effects are more significant on women, urban residents and people with high incidence rates such as low and high age groups. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy reference for the government to construct the development path of environmental health and equality and promote the strategy of “Healthy China”.

Key words: “ Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan ”, Health Effects, Difference-in- Differences Model