关键词: 关税反制, 进口贸易, 双重差分模型

Abstract: In this paper, based on the HS eight-digit import data from 2017 to 2019, we use the difference in difference (DID) model to comprehensively assess the effect of China’s tariff countermeasure against the US on Chinese import trade and its mechanism. Empirical results show that the imposition of tariffs on the US has significantly reduced China’s gross import value from the US. In particular, it has a greater negative impact on the import value of agricultural food products, non-GVC trade and general trade from the US. From the perspective of influence channels, the first round of tariff countermeasures has a negative impact on the import from the US by reducing the import quantities and the average import price, while the second round of tariff countermeasures impacts the total import from the US only by reducing the import quantities. The costs of the first and third rounds of tariff countermeasures are shared by US exporters and Chinese importers and consumers, while the costs of the second round of tariff imposition are all passed on to Chinese importers and consumers. China’s import substitution from other countries ( regions) can effectively offset the decrease of import value and import quantities from the US caused by the second round of tariff countermeasures, but cannot completely offset the decrease of import value and import quantities from the US caused by the first round of tariff countermeasures. In addition, the larger the tariff increases, the greater the negative impact on the value and quantities of imports, and the average import price from the US is.

Key words: Tariff Countermeasures, Import Trade, Difference in Difference Model