统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 40-54.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.06.004

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中国地区经济发展不平衡及影响因素研究——基于夜间灯光数据

陈梦根 张帅   

  • 出版日期:2020-06-25 发布日期:2020-06-23

Regional Economic Imbalance in China and the Influence Factors: Based on Nighttime Light Data

Chen Menggen & Zhang Shuai   

  • Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-06-23

摘要: 本文以全球夜间灯光数据为参照,分别从地级和县级行政区层面研究了1992-2016年我国地区经济发展不平衡的演化及其影响因素。受地级和县级人均GDP数据可得性和准确性的限制,首先利用省级人均GDP与灯光亮度关系估算地级和县级的经济产出水平。基于地级和县级经济产出水平,测算了地区经济差异指数、泰尔指数和阿特金森指数,证实了各省份、全国及四大地区均呈现库兹涅茨倒“U”曲线。对泰尔指数进行四大地区分解,发现了四大地区间的经济差异是我国地区经济不平衡的主要根源。地区经济发展不平衡的影响因素研究再次证实库兹涅茨曲线的存在,还发现城镇化水平和产业结构变迁与地区经济不平衡之间也存在倒“U”型关系,教育水平的提升与交通基础设施的完善分别扩大和缩小了地区经济的不平衡,但资源禀赋、对外开放度和政府消费与地区经济不平衡的关系并不显著。

关键词: 地区经济不平衡, 夜间灯光, 库兹涅茨曲线, 影响因素

Abstract: This paper studies the regional economic imbalance in China and the influence factors from 1992 to 2016 at the prefecture and county administrative levels based on the global night-time light data. Subject to the availability and accuracy of the per-capita GDP at the prefecture and county levels, this paper first measures the economic output at the above two levels based on the relationship between lights and provincial per-capita GDP. Then, economic disparity index, Theil index and Atkinson index are calculated to measure regional imbalance using the estimated economic output, which suggests Kuznets inverted U curve exists both in China, its provinces and the four major regions of China. Decomposition of Theil index by region shows the economic disparity between the four major regions is the main driving force for regional economic imbalance. Analysis on the determinants of regional imbalance confirms the existence of the Kuznets curve. Moreover, we find that the inverted U curve also exists between regional imbalance and urbanization or industrial structural change, and education increases regional imbalance while transport infrastructure reduces regional imbalance, and no significant relationship exists between regional imbalance and resources, openness or government consumption.

Key words: Regional Economic Imbalance, Nighttime Lights, Kuznets Curve, Influence Factor