统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 75-86.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.04.006

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地方主导企业特质冲击的颗粒经济效应与区域经济影响

熊海芳 李思琪   

  • 出版日期:2020-04-25 发布日期:2020-04-15

The Granular Economic Effect and Regional Economic Influence of Idiosyncratic Shocks to Locally-Dominant Enterprises

Xiong Haifang & Li Siqi   

  • Online:2020-04-25 Published:2020-04-15

摘要: 上市公司作为经济发展水平重要标识的微观因素,对宏观经济波动产生的影响需要关注。本文基于Gabaix(2011)的“颗粒假说”探讨我国各省(自治区、直辖市)较大的上市公司(地方主导企业)的特质冲击对宏观经济波动的解释力量,分析颗粒经济效应产生的原因及其对区域经济的影响。结果表明:31个省份中有14个省份当地主导企业的特质冲击显著影响当地宏观经济波动,具有颗粒经济效应;将省级经济体扩大至各省份临界经济体、各省份所属经济区域,发现其中一些省份的主导企业对区域经济体的经济波动仍具有一定的解释力量;不同企业群体对各省份宏观经济波动的解释力量有所差异,从而为各省份宏观经济波动识别了一系列更为重要的微观起源。经济发展中应该对微观企业生产波动给予重要关注,尤其是地方主导企业,从而引导区域经济协调发展,推动我国宏观经济平稳运行。

关键词: 宏观经济波动, 企业特质冲击, 当地主导企业, 颗粒经济效应, 区域经济影响

Abstract: As an important indicator of economic development, listed companies need to be considered for their impact on macroeconomic fluctuations. Based on the theory of “Granular Hypothesis” of Gabaix (2011), this paper explores the explanatory power of idiosyncratic shocks to large listed companies (locally-dominant enterprises) in each province of China to macroeconomic fluctuations, analyzes the reasons of granular economic effect and its influence on regional economy. The results indicate that in 14 of the 31 provinces in China, the idiosyncratic shocks to locally-dominant enterprises significantly affect the local macroeconomic fluctuations, having the granular economic effect. When we expand provincial economies to the provincial-border economies and economic divisions of each province, we find that the locally-dominant enterprises of some provinces above still have explanatory power for the economic fluctuations of regional economies. Different groups of enterprises have different explanatory powers for macroeconomic fluctuations of each province, thus we identify a series of more important microscopic origins of macroeconomic fluctuations for each province. Economic development should pay special attention to the production fluctuation of micro enterprises, especially locally-dominant ones, in order to guide the coordinated development of regional economy and promote the smooth operation of China’s macro-economy.

Key words: Macroeconomic Fluctuation, Idiosyncratic Shocks to Enterprises, Locally-Dominant Enterprises, Granular Economic Effect, Regional Economic Influence