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### 国外跨境电子商务税收冲击的经济效应：基于TSO-DSGE模型的研究

• 出版日期:2020-01-25 发布日期:2020-02-28

### The Economic Effect of Tax Shocks in Cross-border E-Commerce: A Research Based on TSO-DSGE Model

Su Weihua  Wang Yuying  Zhang Chonghui

• Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-02-28

Abstract: This paper constructs a three-sector open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce, which contains heterogeneous traded goods producers. There is a cross-border e-commerce export intermediary in the model, to analyze the economic impact of foreign crossborder ecommerce tax shocks quantitatively. The simulation suggests that i) the foreign cross-border e-commerce tax shocks have a significant impact on China’s output, whose inhibition strength has reached 71.3% with a duration of roughly ten quarters. ii) For producers, tax shocks will increase product prices, curb the consumption overseas, and lead to a decline in domestic output; in order to maximize profits, domestic capital and labor will shift to traditionally traded goods and non-traded goods. iii) The increase in the proportion of cross-border e-commerce in export trade will lead to a longer convergence period, but it can deal with tax shocks more effectively. iv) The smaller the substitution elasticity of cross-border e-commerce products, the smaller the negative impact of tax shocks, and the reduction of substitution elasticity can make the tax shock response intensity decrease at a rate of 64.22%, and the output fluctuation cycle is shortened by an average of 4.75 quarters. Based on this, the paper proposes the following three recommendations. Firstly, the government should cultivate brand sellers and enhance consumers′ brand recognition. Secondly, the government needs to increase consumer price adhesion by refining target consumers. Lastly, the government needs to introduce a temporary export subsidy response mechanism to solve the difficulties of getting export tax rebates.