统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 37-48.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.11.004

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商品房限购政策的实体经济发展效应研究

白仲林 孙艳华 高泽铭   

  • 出版日期:2019-11-25 发布日期:2019-11-28

Study on the Effect of the Policy of Restricting the Purchase of Commercial Housing on the Development of Real Economy

Bai Zhonglin Sun Yanhua Gao Zeming   

  • Online:2019-11-25 Published:2019-11-28

摘要: 本文依据2014年10月至2017年11月16个“非同期”限购城市和29个非限购城市的面板数据,利用广义合成控制法研究了房地产市场限购政策调控商品房价格、促进实体经济发展的政策效应。研究发现:限购政策能够有效地抑制商品房价格过快上涨,政策效应因商品房建筑面积和城市规模等特征存在差异性;同时发现了房地产限购政策与实体经济发展相关联的典型事实,并证实了限购政策对支持实体经济发展存在较显著的“回馈效应”,特别是由限购政策产生的转移投资对实体经济产出存在约10个月的滞后期。

关键词: 商品房, 限购政策, 实体经济, 机制分析, 广义合成控制法

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 16 “nonsynchronous” purchase-restricting cities and 29 non-restricting cities from October 2014 to November 2017, this paper studies the effect of the purchase restriction policy in the real estate market to regulate the price of commercial housing and promote the development of real economy by using the generalized synthetic control method. It is found that the purchase restriction policy can effectively restrain the price of commercial housing from rising too fast and the policy effects are different depending on the characteristics of building area and city scale of commodity houses. At the same time, we find the typical fact that the real estate restriction policy is associated with the development of real economy, and confirm that the purchase restriction policy has a significant “feedback effect” on supporting the development of real economy. In particular, the transfer investment resulting from the purchase restriction policy has a lag period of about 10 months on the output of real economy.

Key words: Commercial Housing, Purchase Restriction Policy, Real Economy, Mechanism Analysis, Generalized Synthetic Control Method