关键词: 信贷违约, 房地产价格, 市场博弈

Abstract: From the perspective of ex post incentives, this paper constructs a bank reaction strategy model on the default of real estate mortgage loans, analyzes the inducing factors leading to the decline of real estate prices in China and the optimal decisions of households and banks. I empirically test the theoretical inferences using the panel data of 35 medium-sized and large cities. The results show that family income decline and real estate credit default are the key factors to induce real estate prices to fall. Improving the down-payment ratio of house purchase, reducing the ratio of loan to value and maintaining a moderate concentration of the credit market can not only restrain the excessive rise of real estate prices, but also prevent the collapse of real estate price. When real estate credit default occurs, the bank's best strategy is not to cancel the foreclosure of real estate mortgages, but to take positive credit incentives to stabilize the real estate price. This will avoid the downward spiral of real estate prices. Banks with high credit market shares are more willing to do so.

Key words: Credit Default, Real Estate Price, Market Games