统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 3-16.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.04.001

• •    下一篇

中国省区间人口投入产出表编制方法创新及实证研究

徐国祥 陈海龙   

  • 出版日期:2019-04-25 发布日期:2019-04-22

The Study of Inter-regional Population Input Output Tables in China: Methodological Innovation and Empirical Research

Xu Guoxiang & Chen Hailong   

  • Online:2019-04-25 Published:2019-04-22

摘要: 基于区域间投入产出表的空间静态特征和人口投入产出表的跨期动态特征,本文研究了省区间人口投入产出表的编制,研究的主要内容从编制思路创新、数据估计方法创新及实证检验分析等方面展开。研究结论认为:人口流动跨期特征和空间静态分布特征的结合合理解决了省区间人口投入产出表的编制思路;分类估计省区间人口投入产出表中间流量和非中间流量数据,有效解决了省区间人口投入产出表数据的估计;实证检验及经验数据检验结果验证了本文所编制中国省区间人口投入产出表是可行的,GM-RAS方法估计的省区间人口投入产出表数据是可靠的;实证应用分析发现中国人口迁移特征符合“胡焕庸线”理论,且表现出“胡焕庸线”向东南移动的特征。

关键词: 省区间人口投入产出表, 编制思路, 编制方法, GM-RAS

Abstract: Based on the spatial static characteristics of the inter-regional input output table and the dynamic characteristics of the population input output table, this paper studies the compilation of the inter-provincial population input output table, focusing on the innovation of compiling ideas, data estimation innovation and empirical analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the combination of the dynamic characteristics of the population flow and the spatial static distribution solves the problem of the compiling ideas; the estimation of the classified data solves the problem of the estimate of the data; the empirical research shows that the inter-regional population input output table of China is feasible and the data from GM-RAS estimation is reliable. The empirical analysis shows that the characteristics of the migration of China's population conform to the Hu Huanyong line theory and the line movement to the southeast.

Key words: Inter-regional Population Input Output Tables, Compilation Ideas, Compilation Method, GM-RAS