关键词: 资本积累, 创新驱动, 经济转型, 转型冲击, 复合增长模型

Abstract: This paper constructs compound economic growth models driven by investment to innovation in different development stages placed with neoclassical and endogenous growth models. In the economic transition process, the capital shifts to emerging and innovative industries and the innovation of products intensifies the market monopoly, inducing a “transition shock”. However, a numerical simulation shows that the post-transition economic growth will produce a short-term negative shock and a long-term sustaining rally. Using the data on China's sub-industry provided by WIOD, it is found that China’s economy obviously driven by investment has not entered into the innovation-driven stage yet on a whole. Based on the dynamic panel data and panel vector auto-regression models, the results show that the innovation in China leads to a short-term decline in output growth rate, but it is positive to the escalation of long-term expansion, which corroborates these theoretical models.

Key words: Capital Accumulation, Innovation-driven, Economic Transformation, Transition Shock, Compound Growth Model