统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 23-37.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.02.003

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经济金融关联网络的我国系统性风险防范研究

李政等   

  • 出版日期:2019-02-25 发布日期:2019-03-07

A Study on Forestalling China's Systemic Risk Based on Financial Industry and Real Economy Interacted Network

Li Zheng et al   

  • Online:2019-02-25 Published:2019-03-07

摘要: 如何防范化解系统性风险一直以来都是社会各界普遍关注的热点问题,但系统性风险的源头究竟在哪?传导机制又如何?目前还没有定论。现有对系统性风险的研究成果大多关注于金融行业内部,忽略了实体经济在系统性风险传递过程中扮演的角色。防范系统性风险真的仅限于金融行业吗?本文从经济金融关联网络视角出发,以我国整体经济领域中各行业为研究对象,运用系统性风险度量新方法——TENET构建2002-2017年我国行业间系统性风险溢出网络,在此基础上对行业间的风险溢出水平以及传导结构特征进行全面地考察分析,并为科学防范系统性风险提供有效建议。研究发现:(1)我国行业间系统性风险溢出的总体水平在金融危机或市场过热期间显著增强,同时各行业系统性风险输出与输入水平的时序特征存在明显差异,输出水平大幅波动而输入水平呈平稳状态;(2)信息技术、房地产和材料行业不仅是主要的系统性风险源头,而且容易受到其他行业风险外溢的影响,是整个经济金融关联网络中最具系统重要性的三个行业,同时各行业的系统重要性具有明显的时变特征;(3)虽然金融行业在整个经济金融关联网络中的系统性重要性仅排在第四位,但是金融与房地产和能源两个行业具有长期较强的双向风险溢出关系,而且金融与房地产之间的双向风险溢出强度在系统性风险溢出网络中居首位。本文研究结论的政策启示在于提醒监管部门防范系统性风险要立足全局视角,正视金融在其中扮演的角色,不能过度高估金融行业的系统性风险地位,同时要找准风险源头行业并对其做好前瞻性调控,尽可能避免风险的产生,并在风险传递初期切断风险溢出的路径避免风险大规模蔓延。

关键词: 系统性风险, 经济金融关联网络, TENET, 风险溢出

Abstract: This paper builds up a spillover network of inter-industrial systemic risks in China in the years of 2002 – 2017 by applying a new method for measuring systemic risks, i.e., TENET, from the perspective of the economic and financial correlated network and focusing on the various industries in the whole economy. Based on this, a comprehensive analysis is conducted on the risk spillover level and the transmission composition in order to offer an efficient proposal for guarding against systemic risks. It is found that firstly, the overall level of inter-industrial systemic risk spillover in China pick up steam in extreme cases such as financial crisis or overheated market. In addition, there is quite a big difference in timing of out-flow and in-flow of the inter-industrial systemic risks, i.e., out-flow level moves up and down while the in-flow level keeps stable. Secondly, the sectors, such as information technology, real estate and materials, are not only the main sources of systemic risks, but also subject to the risk-spillover from other sectors. These three sectors are most systematically important in the economic and financial correlated network with a significant time-varying characteristic. Thirdly, although the financial sector ranks only number four in terms of its importance in the network, it has a strong and lasting mutual risk-spillover relation with the real estate and the energy sectors, and moreover, risk spillover between the financial industry and the real estate sectors is most intense in the correlated network. The paper concludes that the regulatory authority needs to face squarely the role it plays to prevent the systemic risks, not overestimate the position of systemic risks in the financial sector. At the same time, it needs to brace for the forward-looking regulatory measures targeting at the risk sources and tries to avoid the emergence of the risks and cut off the path of risk spillover at the early stage of risk transmission if they comes to refrain them from straggling.

Key words: Systemic Risk, Economic and Financial Correlated Network, TENET, Risk Spillover