统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 68-79.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.12.006

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社会保险缴费对企业雇佣工资和规模的影响研究

钱雪亚等   

  • 出版日期:2018-12-25 发布日期:2018-12-28

A Study on the Impacts of Social Insurance Contributions on Employment Decisions by Firms

Qian Xueya et al.   

  • Online:2018-12-25 Published:2018-12-28

摘要: 社会保险与劳动力市场就业和工资的关系备受关注,其本质在于社保缴费对企业雇佣工资和雇佣规模的影响。本文基于企业薪酬调查与第三次经济普查对接形成的“企业-员工”匹配数据,从企业雇佣决策的整体性出发,将缴费负担及其影响置于我国缴费监管的特殊制度背景之下,运用系统估计法模拟社保缴费对企业雇佣工资和雇佣规模的影响。研究发现:企业实际承担的社保缴费费率越高,其雇佣工资显著越低、雇佣规模显著越小,社会保险以降低工资和减少就业的方式对劳动力市场运行存在双重影响;从标准化回归系数看,缴费负担对雇佣工资的影响强于对雇佣规模的影响,但雇佣规模缩减不仅是劳动者就业机会的损失更是企业经营风险的积累,对劳动力市场的影响尤其需要关注;从雇佣工资影响的程度看,缴费负担极大部分由企业承担,雇佣规模因缴费负担而缩减是用工成本上升的直接体现;从雇佣工资影响的结构看,缴费负担对职工福利有显著负影响、对奖金津贴形式的工资部分有更强的负影响,进一步反映出缴费负担形成的成本压力不可轻视,成本压力持续积累对劳动力市场运行的影响将是深远的。鉴于我国社会保险制度费率偏高同时逃避费行为较普遍的事实,鉴于未来劳动工资上涨、劳动供给结构性乃至整体性相对不足的基本趋势,建议合理缴费负担,同时严格缴费执法,以此谋求社会保险制度与劳动力市场运行的有效协同。

关键词: 雇佣工资, 雇佣规模, 用工成本, 社会保险, 劳动力市场

Abstract: It is always attentive to the linkage of social insurance to the employment and wages in the labor market, as the impacts on firms are much concerned. Based on the firm salary survey matched with the Third National Economic Census, the impacts of social insurance contributions on firms’ employment wages and size are simulated by using the systematic estimation method, amid the Chinese contribution regulatory system and in view of the overall firm decision making of employment. It is found that: the higher firms have to bear the social contribution rates, the lower the employees’ wages are, and the smaller the employment size is, i.e., the social contributions play a dual role in cutting the wages and reducing employment size. Taking the standardized regressive coefficients into account, the stronger the impact of contribution load is on the wages than on the size, but the size reduction is not only the loss of employment opportunity of the labor, but also the accumulation of the firm operational risks, as the attention needs to be paid particularly on the labor market effects. In view of the effects of wages, as the social insurance is borne mostly by firms, the employment size, reflecting the labor cost increases, is reduced due to the contribution load. In the composition of wages, the contribution load has a negative effect on employees’ welfare, and much more on the part of wages in the form of bonus and subsidies. Therefore, the social contribution load cannot be negligible as to its cost pressure on firms and the continuous accumulation of cost pressure has a far-reaching effect on the operation of labor market. As to the fact that the higher social contribution rate existing and the evasion of the contribution prevailing in China, in view of the future wage increases and insufficiency of the labor supply both in structure and in total, it is proposed to reasonably adjust the social contribution load and strictly enforce the law in order to seek the efficient synergy of the system of social insurance and the operation of labor market.

Key words: Wage, Number of Employees, Labor Cost, Social Insurance, Labor Market