统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 50-61.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.05.006

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理性预期下宏观经济政策真的无效吗

李腊生等   

  • 出版日期:2018-05-25 发布日期:2018-05-25

Is the Macroeconomic Policy really Ineffective in the Rational Expectation

Li Lasheng et al.   

  • Online:2018-05-25 Published:2018-05-25

摘要: 本文在对理性预期模型评述的基础上,通过将宏观经济政策的有效性分为前期有效、当期有效与后期有效后发现,即便是在理性预期理论框架下,宏观经济政策总体上都是有效的,不同的是,在理性预期理论框架下,宏观经济政策仅表现为前期有效。在经验证据上,本文分别以我国和美国的相关实际数据为样本,利用实证分析的方法检验了货币政策的有效性。分析结果显示,我国的货币政策不仅是前期有效的,而且后期也是有效的,相比而言,美国的货币政策却表现出前期有效、后期无效的特点。究其原因,两者的差异主要在于政策信号传递以及公众对货币政策预期形成方式不同,但无论公众对宏观经济政策的预期符合什么形式,它都会对宏观经济经济运行产生影响,经济政策都是不可或缺的。

关键词: 理性预期模型, 宏观经济政策, 前期有效, 中美政策效应比较

Abstract: By classifying the validity of macroeconomic policy into early-phase, current-phase and last-phase effectiveness based on the review of the rational expectation model, it finds that the macroeconomic policies are effective in general even under the framework of rational expectation theory. The difference is that the macroeconomic policies are effective at early phase under the framework of rational expectation theory. This paper uses the actual data from both China and the United States as samples to test the effectiveness of monetary policy with an empirical analytical approach. The result shows that the monetary policy in China is not only effective at the early but also at the last phases while in the United States only effective at the early phase and ineffective at the last phase. The causes come from the differences in the ways of transmission of policy signals and of formation of public expectations on monetary policy. But whatever in which way the public expectations on macroeconomic policies are, it will exert an impact on macroeconomic operation and the economic policies are fundamental in any way.

Key words: Rational Expectation Model, Macroeconomic Policy, Effective at Early Phase, Comparison of Policy Effects in China and the US