关键词: 减排效果, 产业碳排放, 投入产出方法

Abstract: A differentiated incentive policy on carbon reduction among industries is an important subject-matter in China’s economy towards low carbon emission. This paper undertakes a simulative analysis on carbon reduction effects in the thirteenth Five-year Period under different scenarios based on Input-output method. It has found: firstly, there are twenty-five high carbon emission industries among 30’s, i.e., four as whole-process emission type, fifteen as conductive high emission type and six as apparent high emission type; secondly, there are significant differences in reduction effects in different scenarios. In terms of the intensity of carbon reduction, the conductive high emission type enjoys the highest carbon reduction effect, the whole-process high emission type is the second highest and the apparent high emission type has the least effect. As to the absolute reduction effects, the whole-process emission type contributes the highest reduction of carbon emission, the apparent high emission type plays the second, and the conductive high emission type has the least. In the formulation of incentive policies on carbon reduction, the carbon reduction effects among different types should be taken into consideration; thirdly, the technological progress in carbon reduction is a key to and a potential for low carbon industrial transformation in China. In the short run, the reduction effect derived from technological progress in carbon reduction is not enough to offset the rising emission derived from growing final demand. In the long term, as the technological progress moves faster, the total carbon emission will turn downward. The Chinese government should attach great importance to coordinated arrangement of its long-term and short-term incentive policies in the formulation of its policies and its target decompositions for carbon reduction.

Key words: Emission Reduction Effect, Industrial Carbon Emissions, Input-output Method